No.  That change would not have turned Japan into an expansionistic 

empire in the 18th century.<<

Here's a guess: 
Due to an injury to the head, a certain POWER behind the Tokugawa regime 
took an interest for imported examples of clockwork from China. This 
ushered industrial design during the early Tokugawa reign, and by the 
time the Europeans industrialized, Japan already had Edison-era 
technology. In the 1800's its technology was 'modern,' and when an 
ENGLISH Perry came, they were introduced to colonialism, which they took 
quickly into account. From then on, they were expansionistic, and for a 
change, THEY were the ones who created the A-bomb. 

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